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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's why JPMorgan's Michael Feroli still expects three rate cuts this yearMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed ahead of its meeting tomorrow and how the rate decision could impact the markets.
Persons: Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Michael Feroli: Still expect the Fed to carry out its first rate cut in JulyMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what Feroli made of the latest retail sales data, what to expect from the Federal Reserve, and more.
Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal Reserve
Washington, DC CNN —A slew of economic news this week will make it much clearer if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The Labor Department is due to release four crucial assessments of America’s job market, gauging labor demand, wage growth, productivity and hiring. Wages and the Fed on Wednesday: The day after, the Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter, a comprehensive measure of employers’ labor costs. The US Labor Department releases December data on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department releases its Employment Cost Index for the fourth quarter.
Persons: that’s, , Christian Scherrmann, Jerome Powell, ” Michael Feroli, , ” Feroli, Powell, Alicia Wallace, Joe Brusuelas, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, DWS, Labor, Survey, Fed, Employers, PCE, Federal, Commerce Department, RSM, Whirlpool, Microsoft, UBS, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Cleveland Cliffs, Mondelez International, JetBlue Airways, Global, US Labor Department, Board, National Bureau of Statistics, Novo Nordisk, Mastercard, Novartis, Boeing, ADP, Nasdaq, Nomura Holdings, Apple, Shell, Honeywell, Deutsche Bank, Clorox, Quest Diagnostics, United States Steel, Bank of England, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Exxon Mobil, AbbVie, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Marathon, Cleveland, Chevron
JPMorgan's Michael Feroli: Expect rate cuts in June
  + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Michael Feroli: Expect rate cuts in JuneMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss what surprised Feroli most in the latest GDP data, whether Feroli's outlook has changed after the latest GDP print, and more.
Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan
The economy is slowing, says JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
  + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy is slowing, says JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss where Feroli thinks the economy is, how to balance Feroli's thoughts with the higher for a more extended narrative, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan
Bond yields fell, and traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see only a 12% chance of a rate hike by January, down from 30% before the release of the employment report. Rate futures pricing now reflects a better-than-even chance of a Fed rate cut by May of 2024, with several more cuts expected later next year. U.S. central bankers themselves are not even thinking about rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week after the Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range. "Continued upward momentum would be troubling, and hopefully this recent rise levels off as the labor market recovery continues," said Indeed.com's Nick Bunker. Still for now, most of the worries about the labor market appear to be focused on what might, or might not, happen next rather than on the evidence so far.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, nonfarm, Bond, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Michael Feroli, Nick Bunker, Sharif, Julie Su, Ann Saphir, Shristi Achar, Tomasz Janowski, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao, Chris Reese Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Labor Department, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, CNBC, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, Labor, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S
So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.
Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, , Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're leaning more towards a mild recession instead of a soft landing: JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether the economy has seen the end of the soft landing story, how much worse it'll get in the real estate sector, and more.
Persons: Michael Feroli Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan
Striking United Auto Workers members Laura Zielinski and Aisha Cochra hold their strike signs outside the Stellantis Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio, U.S. September 19, 2023. The fledgling auto workers strike, if it lasts and broadens out, could be just that. A prolonged nationwide strike could put already-low inventory under heavy strain, posing "significant" upside risk to auto prices. The United Auto Workers strike against the 'Detroit Three' automakers General Motors, Ford and Stellantis entered its fifth day on Tuesday. Annual inflation has plummeted this year and by some measures now has, or is close to having, a "2" handle - the central bank's 2% goal is within sight.
Persons: Laura Zielinski, Aisha Cochra, Rebecca Cook, Morgan Stanley, Michael Feroli, JP Morgan, Cox, Stellantis, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: United Auto Workers, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, General Motors, Ford, Cox Automotive, UAW, UBS, University, Thomson Locations: Toledo , Ohio, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Detroit
WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year. A new policy statement and interest rate decision will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. to elaborate. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsIn June the Fed paused, but the quarterly economic projections accompanying that decision showed 12 of 18 policymakers still anticipated two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year. But how fast and when that occurs remains a matter of debate within the Fed and depends on how fast inflation falls. But it may mean rates stay higher for longer than the public currently expects.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan, Michael Feroli, Feroli, Powell, Michael Gapen, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: synch
Another is the still-inverted Treasury yield curve, meaning yields on shorter-duration government bonds are higher than those with longer durations. Inversions of the 3-month and 10-year yields have preceded every recession since the 1960s without producing a false signal. The Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) offer exposure to energy stocks. The Consumer Price Index, a main measure of inflation, rose to 3.7% year-over-year in August compared to 3.2% in July. Investors can gain exposure to short-term government bonds through TreasuryDirect, their brokerage, or through ETFs like the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH).
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Michael Feroli, Cash Organizations: for Supply Management, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Energy, Vanguard Energy Locations: China, TreasuryDirect
Colombian-born Kugler, whose research has focused on labor markets, is the first Latina to join the Fed Board in its 109-year history. The vote was 53-45, with a few Republicans supporting a nomination that was championed by Democratic Senator Bob Menendez. The Senate on Wednesday also confirmed Fed Governor Philip Jefferson as Fed vice chair and Fed Governor Lisa Cook to a second term. Jefferson's success as vice chair will hinge on his ability to help Powell manage that process. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao and Timothy GardnerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Adriana Kugler, Jonathan Ernst, Kugler, Bob Menendez, Menendez, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Cook, Jerome Powell, Powell, Michael Feroli, Jefferson, she'll, Derek Tang, Tang, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Governors, Capitol, REUTERS, U.S, Senate, Bank, Fed Board, Democratic, Wednesday, Jefferson, JPMorgan, Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Cuban, United States, U.S
He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.
Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailReal consumer spend could be up 3-4% this quarter, says JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the expectations for the third quarter, what Jerome Powell could say at this week's Jackson Hole Summit, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli, Jerome Powell Organizations: JPMorgan, Hole Summit
The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.
Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells
JPMorgan is the latest bank on Wall Street to push out its recession forecast to 2024. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The bank became the latest Wall Street bank to delay its recession forecast to 2024, if it happens at all. Bank of America became the first Wall Street bank earlier last week to delay its 2023 recession forecast. The most recent GDPNow estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta suggests annualized GDP growth of 3.9% in the third-quarter.
Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan, Bank of America, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
CNBC Daily Open: Financial markets aren’t the economy
  + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. JPMorgan Chase no longer thinks the U.S. economy will slip into a recession this year. "Given this growth, we doubt the economy will … slip into a mild contraction as early as next quarter," wrote Feroli. CNBC Pro's Sarah Min explains how the Federal Reserve might react, depending on what the price numbers look like.
Persons: nonfarm payrolls, That's, Dow Jones, JPMorgan Chase, Michael Feroli, Sarah Min Organizations: CNBC, Federal, U.S, Nasdaq, Credit Agricole, Maersk, JPMorgan, Apple Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S, Cupertino
Not everyone is convinced the US will avoid a recession
  + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
New York CNN —The case for no US recession is building, but some on Wall Street are cautioning against getting overconfident. That has raised hopes among investors that the United States could avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive pace of interest rate hikes. Still, some investors are maintaining that the US economy could tip into a recession later this year. The index of leading economic indicators is just kind of at an extreme rating. One of the reasons for the rise in equity valuations in recent weeks was the pricing out of recession or economic weakness.
Persons: Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli, , Bell, David Donabedian, we’ve, There’s, Catherine Thorbecke, Danielle Romain, Romain, Read, Uno Mattel, Uno Quatro, Ellie Stevens, “ We’re, Ray Adler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase’s, CIBC Private Wealth, Fitch, Google, Trust, Mattel, Uno Locations: New York, United States, New York City
REUTERS/Mike BlakeAug 4 (Reuters) - JPMorgan's chief economist said on Friday the bank is no longer forecasting a U.S. recession this year and has raised its economic growth estimate as the economy expands at a "healthy pace." The firm increased its current-quarter real annualized GDP growth estimate to 2.5% from 0.5%, Michael Feroli wrote in a research note on Friday. And while recession risks are still elevated for next year, Feroli said he expects modest, sub-par growth. Earlier this week, strategists at Bank of America said they no longer forecast a 2024 recession for the U.S. and increased their 2023 economic growth outlook for the country. Still, while a recession is no longer his base case, it could materialize if the Fed is not done hiking rates, Feroli cautioned.
Persons: Mike Blake, Michael Feroli, Feroli, Sinéad Carew, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of America, U.S, Thomson Locations: Encinitas , California, U.S
JPMorgan Chase economists on Friday bailed on their recession call, joining a growing Wall Street chorus that now thinks a contraction is no longer inevitable. "While a recession is no longer our modal scenario, risk of a downturn is still very elevated. "Another way in which recession risks could materialize is if the normal lagged effects of the tightening already delivered kick in." The so-called inverted yield curve has been a reliable recession predictor in data going all the way back to 1959. Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed's economists no longer think a credit contraction will lead to a mild recession this year.
Persons: Michael Feroli, Feroli, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Chase, Group, New, New York Fed, Bank of America, Federal Locations: New York
This week's data macro calendar is light and Fed officials are in their "blackout period" ahead of their July policy meeting, leaving investors with the big question of whether last week's market moves will continue or reverse. U.S. stock index futures , erased earlier gains and were down 0.1% ahead of a packed week of corporate earnings. "We expect Fed officials cheered the latest inflation developments, but declaring victory with sub-4% unemployment, and over 4% core inflation, would be reckless." Copper , which is also highly sensitive to Chinese data, dropped 2.5% to $8,458 a ton. Additional reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Michael Brown, Brown, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, disinflation, Michael Feroli, Sterling, Wayne Cole, Lincoln, Christina Fincher Organizations: Global, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Netflix, JPMorgan, Reuters, Treasury, Bank of England, CBA, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Europe, Libya, Sydney
Asia shares struggle as China fails to stimulate
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
China reported economic growth of 0.8% in the second quarter, above the 0.5% forecasted, while the annual pace slowed more than expected to 6.3%. That followed figures out over the weekend showed China's new home prices were unchanged in June, the weakest result this year. "Markets have already adjusted lower their expectations (for stimulus), and our base case is that there won't be a substantial package." MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.3%, though that follows a 5.6% rally last week. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off a fraction, but that followed hefty gains last week.
Persons: Carol Kong, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, disinflation, Michael Feroli, Sterling, Brent, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, FTSE, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Netflix, JPMorgan, ., Bank of England, CBA, Thomson Locations: Japan, China, SYDNEY, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Libya
Asia shares slip as China data underwhelms
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
China reported economic growth of 0.8% in the second quarter, above the 0.5% forecasted, while the annual pace slowed more than expected to 6.3%. Industrial output topped forecasts with a rise of 4.4%, while retail sales missed by a tick at 3.1%. That followed figures out over the weekend showed China's new home prices were unchanged in June, the weakest result this year. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.2%, though that follows a 5.6% rally last week. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both off 0.1%, but that followed hefty gains last week.
Persons: Carol Kong, Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, disinflation, Michael Feroli, Sterling, Brent, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, FTSE, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Netflix, JPMorgan, ., Thomson Locations: Japan, China, SYDNEY, Beijing, Asia, Pacific, Libya
Asia shares brace for China data to disappoint
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Figures out over the weekend showed China's new home prices were unchanged in June, the weakest result this year. The risk of even softer outcomes kept MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) down 0.2%, though that follows a 5.6% rally last week. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both down 0.2%, but that followed hefty gains last week. PRICED FOR 2024 POLICY EASINGAs a result, markets still imply around a 96% chance of the Fed hiking to 5.25-5.5% this month, but only around a 25% probability of yet a further rise by November. Early Monday, Brent was off 58 cents at $79.29 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 55 cents to $74.87.
Persons: Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, disinflation, Michael Feroli, Sterling, Brent, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: Tesla, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Netflix, JPMorgan, ., Thomson Locations: Japan, China, SYDNEY, Beijing, Asia, Pacific
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.5%, bolstered by a 2.1% jump in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) and a 1.4% gain in Australia's resources-heavy shares (.AXJO). Overnight, the much-watched U.S. consumer inflation report provided better news than markets had hoped for. In particular, core inflation, which the Fed has feared to be sticky, also showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown. Elsewhere, oil prices settled near the highest in two months on a soft U.S. dollar. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $80.29 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.2 at $75.88.
Persons: Li Qiang, Michael Feroli, Bonds, Alan Ruskin, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Index, Fed, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, FedWatch, U.S, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Canada, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada
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